For Kalshi and Polymarket traders
Realize what your
losses are worth.
Connect Kalshi or Polymarket and we’ll turn four years of losses into a deduction on your next tax bill, or a refund on the taxes you already paid.
Estimated refund
$2,046
30% Income Tax @ $6,821 Lost
Try it now
See what you could save on your taxes.
Losses can be carried forward, saving you money for years to come.
Quick estimate
Estimated federal tax savings
$7,400 to $2,000
A rough lifetime range: what the deduction is worth between the 10% and 37% federal brackets. Your real rate lands in between. See how we calculate this and the assumptions. Not tax advice.
01: Why Realize
Most Kalshi and Polymarket traders never claim a dollar of their losses.
Prediction markets don’t hand you the tax forms you’d need to file, and no tax software recognizes them, so losses that could put money back in your pocket never make it onto a return. Filed right, a losing year either earns a refund now or cuts your tax bills for years to come.
0of 6
Tax tools we tested that actually handle Kalshi.
TurboTax, H&R Block, FreeTaxUSA, TaxSlayer, CoinTracker, Koinly. We checked. None of them know what a prediction market is. Most lump it in with sports betting, which gets the opposite tax treatment.
$200+/hr
What a CPA charges to figure it out.
If they’ll touch it at all. Most Google it on your dime.
3 years
Losses can be carried forward.
Reducing your tax bill for years to come.
Connect once. We do the rest.
Link Kalshi in 60 seconds.
Read-only API connection. We pull your full trade history, this year and the last three.
We calculate your real P&L, contract by contract.
We compute the profit or loss on every contract, strip out the fees, and total your wins and losses for each tax year.
Every figure your CPA needs, traceable to the trade.
We apply the 60/40 split to your §1256-eligible contracts and show what your losses are worth: a refund now or a carry-forward that cuts future bills, every figure traceable to the trade. Forms and TurboTax export arrive in time to file your 2026 taxes.
What we’re building
The forms your accountant wants.
Coming in time to file your 2026 taxes.
A losing year on Kalshi isn’t money gone. It’s a deduction. Here’s the exact form we’re building, and what that loss is actually worth to you. Tracking and your tax position are live today; the forms themselves aren’t ready yet.
| 1 | Identification of account | KalshiEX LLC, Account ****8421 |
| 2 | Gross gains on §1256 contracts (closed + MTM) | $4,200.00 |
| 3 | Gross losses on §1256 contracts (closed + MTM) | −$15,150.00 |
| 5 | Net gain or loss | −$10,950.00 |
| 8 | Short-term capital gain or loss, 40% ↳ Flows to Schedule D line 4 | −$4,380.00 |
| 9 | Long-term capital gain or loss, 60% ↳ Flows to Schedule D line 11 | −$6,570.00 |
Section 1256 contracts use mark-to-market accounting: every open position is treated as sold on Dec 31 at fair value. The net is aggregated, never lot-by-lot, and is exempt from wash-sale rules (§1091).
of losses, every dollar claimed
Used once, nothing left on the table
$3,000, off your taxable income this year
IRC §1211(b) · every year · ≈ $720 back at a 24% bracket
$7,950, your call (not both):
Carry it back for a refund against prior-year §1256 gains (§1212(c)), or
Carry it forward: offsets future capital gains in full, or $3k/yr of income (§1212(b))
We model both and apply whichever puts more in your pocket.
* Illustrative figures. Your actual result reflects your real Kalshi activity, your prior-year §1256 gains, and your bracket. §1256 treatment of prediction-market contracts is an unsettled area with no specific IRS guidance. Confirm your position with a tax professional. Carry-back is limited to your prior-year §1256 gains and can’t create a net operating loss.
Winners too
Won this year? You’re probably overpaying.
Realize isn’t only for losing years. If you came out ahead on Kalshi or Polymarket, §1256 taxes your gains 60% long-term and 40% short-term, which is usually a lower bill than the ordinary-income treatment your tax software assumes.
A win is taxed as ordinary income by default.
Prediction-market contracts almost always settle within a year, so a winning year would otherwise be taxed entirely as short-term gains, at your regular income rate.
The 60/40 split reprices most of it lower.
§1256 taxes 60% of a gain at the lower long-term capital-gains rate, whatever the holding period. The wider the gap between your ordinary rate and that long-term rate, the more you keep, which is why higher earners save most.
Same engine, whether you won or lost.
Realize computes a winning year exactly like a losing one, every figure traceable back to the trade, so you and your CPA can review the position and stand behind it.
Figures are federal only and depend on your bracket: if your income is low enough that the two rates are close, there is little to gain either way. §1256 treatment of prediction-market contracts is an unsettled area with no specific IRS guidance. Confirm your position with a tax professional. Read the full §1256 60/40 guide. Not tax advice.
From the founder
“I’ve never met a sports fan who realized that losing money on Kalshi is a tax deduction. And I’ve never met anyone in my life who knows what a §1256 contract is. We’re fixing both.”
Owen Monagan
Founder, Realize
Security & data
Your trades. Your numbers. Nobody else’s.
Read-only access
We connect via Kalshi's and Polymarket US's official APIs in read mode. We can't see your password, place trades, or move your money.
Encrypted at rest, US-hosted
Your trade history is encrypted in storage and in transit. All data lives in US-based infrastructure on Google Cloud.
Never sold, never shared
Your data is used to compute your tax figures, nothing more. No ad networks, no resellers, no surprise integrations.
Pricing
Free forever for tracking. One plan when you file.
Track your §1256 position for free, forever. Subscribe for the detailed breakdown behind it. Taxes are filed once a year, so the subscription is annual. Cancel anytime.
Free
See exactly what you’re owed. Free, forever.
- Connect Kalshi (read-only)
- Live §1256 tax position
- Carryback estimates
- Unlimited tracking
Realize
$60 for the year, plus a $10 guarantee fee.
If Realize doesn't find you at least $120 in estimated tax savings this year, we credit your $60 back toward next year. The $10 covers processing and isn't refunded.
Measured against your estimated tax savings in Realize, under the assumptions you can see and adjust. An estimate, not a filed return.
- Detailed 60/40 short-term & long-term breakdown
- Your 2026 figures, ready to file in 2027
- Priority support
Coming in time to file your 2026 taxes
- Form 6781, Schedule D & Form 8949
- One-click TurboTax / H&R Block export
- §1212(c) carryback & amended-return prep (1040-X)
Free forever to track. Subscribe when you want the detail. Cancel anytime. Guarantee terms.
Frequently asked.
Section 1256 contracts (which include Kalshi event contracts) get unique treatment: 60% of your net gain or loss is taxed at long-term capital-gains rates and 40% at short-term, regardless of holding period. Losses first offset any other capital gains you have. Up to $3,000 of any remaining net capital loss reduces ordinary income each year under §1211(b), with the rest carrying forward. Net §1256 losses can also be carried back three years against prior §1256 gains under §1212(c). That election is often the biggest payout. Realize runs all three paths and shows you the largest one.