For Kalshi and Polymarket US traders
We do taxes for prediction markets.
Every trade rebuilt from your fills, priced under all four ways to report your year. Then your forms, partner filing or an independent CPA.
Three questions. No API key, no card.
- Built only for prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket US are the whole product
- Every figure traced to a trade
- Rebuilt from your fills, fees and settlements included
Estimated refund
$2,046
30% Income Tax @ $6,821 Lost
At least $900 of it can apply to this year's return. Capital gains cancel the rest; with none, $3,000 a year comes off your other income.
Realize Ledger
Prediction market accounting, rebuilt from every fill.
Your venue’s statement leaves out per-lot basis, anything still open and the December 31 mark Section 1256 needs. We rebuild the year from the raw fills, so every number on your form traces back to a trade you can open.
Dec 31
The year-end mark §1256 needs, and your statement leaves out.
Under Section 1256, every position still open on December 31 counts as sold at that day’s close and reopens on January 1 at the same price. We read the close from the venue’s own published history. A position the venue published no close for is named on your statement, never priced at a number we made up.
See how every option compares, ours includedFIFO
Basis carried lot by lot.
First in, first out, with fees and settlements included in each lot.
1¢
Checked against Kalshi’s own statement.
Our realized P&L came to −$181.92 against Kalshi’s −$181.93. Kalshi reports settlement revenue net of its offset credit and cost gross.
Realize Routes
Gambling taxes or prediction market taxes? Four ways to report the same year.
There is no IRS guidance on event contracts yet, so four treatments are in use. We price your year under every one of them, side by side.
| Ordinary income §61 | Gambling §165(d) | Standard capital §1221 | Section 1256 §1256 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| What's taxed | Net profit | Gross winnings, less 90% of losses | Net gain, by holding period | Net gain, 60% long-term and 40% short-term |
| Taxable amount | $10,000 | $15,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| Federal tax | $2,400 | $3,600 | $2,400 | $1,860 |
| Losses carried forward | No | No, the excess is lost | Yes, $3,000 a year | Yes |
| Losses carried back | No | No | No | Up to 3 years, against §1256 gains |
- Ordinary income §61$2,400Net profit
- Gambling §165(d)$3,600Gross winnings, less 90% of losses
- Standard capital §1221$2,400Net gain, by holding period
- Section 1256 §1256$1,860Net gain, 60% long-term and 40% short-term
Illustrative: single filer, $150,000 taxable income, a $10,000 net gain held short-term. The gambling column assumes $60,000 won and $50,000 lost, itemized. Federal only. Whether event contracts are Section 1256 contracts is unsettled, and two appeals courts disagree. How the 60/40 split works.
Which treatment you file under is your decision, or your CPA’s.
Try it now
Estimate your own year.
Up or down, enter your net result for a quick federal estimate.
Quick estimate
Estimated federal tax savings, over time
$2,000 to $7,400
At least $300 to $1,110 of it can apply to this year's return. Capital gains cancel the rest dollar for dollar, with no annual limit. With no gains, it comes off your other income at $3,000 a year, so about 7 years.
A rough lifetime range: what the deduction could be worth between the 10% and 37% federal brackets. Your real rate lands in between. See how we calculate this and the assumptions. Not tax advice.
From your trades to your forms.
Answer three questions.
Which venues you trade on, roughly how you did and how you filed. You get a free estimate with no API key and no card.
Connect Kalshi or Polymarket US.
We rebuild every fill, fee and settlement, this year and the last three. Our code only reads: no trading endpoint, no custody of funds.
Get your documents.
Form 6781 with the transaction statement behind it, an account summary and a CSV, every figure traceable to the trade. Early access for the 2026 filing season.
Sample documents
What Form 6781 looks like, if you file under §1256.
Early access for the 2026 filing season.
This one is a losing year. Your estimate and tracking are live today; the documents themselves open for the 2026 filing season, and always ship together so every line on the form can be checked against the trades behind it.
| 1 | Identification of account | KalshiEX LLC, Account ****8421 |
| 2 | Gross gains on §1256 contracts (closed + MTM) | $4,200.00 |
| 3 | Gross losses on §1256 contracts (closed + MTM) | −$15,150.00 |
| 5 | Net gain or loss | −$10,950.00 |
| 8 | Short-term capital gain or loss, 40% ↳ Flows to Schedule D line 4 | −$4,380.00 |
| 9 | Long-term capital gain or loss, 60% ↳ Flows to Schedule D line 11 | −$6,570.00 |
Section 1256 contracts use mark-to-market accounting: every open position is treated as sold on Dec 31 at fair value. The net is aggregated, never lot-by-lot, and is exempt from the wash-sale rule (IRC §1091).
- Transaction statement
- Every fill, settlement and December 31 mark behind the form, which Form 6781 asks for when no 1099-B covers the contracts.
- Account summary
- Each position by ticker with its year-end mark. A position the venue published no close for is named, not priced.
- Transaction CSV
- The same rows for your spreadsheet or your accountant’s software.
* Illustrative figures. Your actual result reflects your real Kalshi activity, your prior-year §1256 gains, and your bracket. §1256 treatment of prediction-market contracts is an unsettled area with no specific IRS guidance. Confirm your position with a tax professional. Carry-back is limited to your prior-year §1256 gains and can’t create a net operating loss.
Pricing
Prediction market tax forms, partner filing and independent CPAs.
Every tier makes the same documents. The difference is who helps you use them. Your estimate and tracking are free, forever.
Forms
Your documents, for you or your accountant to file. We don’t file or review them.
- Form 6781 for each tax year
- The transaction statement behind it
- Account summary and transaction CSV
- Priority support
Early access for the 2026 filing season
Forms + Filing
Your documents, and e-filing through our filing partner, who is the preparer. Nothing is filed until you approve it.
- E-file through our filing partner, inside Realize
- Form 6781 for each tax year
- The transaction statement behind it
- Account summary and transaction CSV
- Priority support
Early access for the 2026 filing season
Forms + CPA
Your documents, and a referral to an independent CPA firm. The CPA advises you, not Realize. Arranged on a call; the price depends on scope.
- We refer you to an independent CPA firm
- Advice comes from the CPA, not from Realize
- The CPA can look at your prior years on the same call
Free
$0foreverConnect Kalshi or Polymarket US · Your year under all four treatments · Carryback estimates · Unlimited tracking
Your documents are emailed to you: Form 6781 for the Section 1256 route, its transaction statement and a CSV. Billed once a year, cancel anytime. Terms.
From the founder
“I’ve never met a sports fan who realized that losing money on Kalshi can be a tax deduction. And I’ve never met anyone in my life who knows what a §1256 contract is. We’re fixing both.”
Founder, Realize
Security & data
How Realize handles your account.
Our code only reads
Realize implements no trading endpoint and holds no funds. It can't see your password, place a trade or move your money. On Kalshi, create your key with the Read scope.
Encrypted at rest, US-hosted
Your trade history is encrypted in storage and in transit. All data lives in US-based infrastructure on Google Cloud.
Never sold, never used for ads
Your data is used to compute your tax figures, nothing more. No ad networks, no resellers, no surprise integrations.
Frequently asked.
There is no IRS guidance on event contracts yet, so four treatments are in use: ordinary income, gambling winnings under §165(d), standard capital gains, and Section 1256 with its 60/40 split. Each taxes the same year differently, and under the 2026 rules the gambling route deducts only 90% of losses. Realize prices all four from your trades and shows them side by side. Which one you file under is your decision, or your CPA's.
Longer answers, worked through in plain English, live in the Prediction Market Tax Center: how Kalshi and Polymarket gains and losses are treated, what Section 1256 changes, and what the new 90% gambling-loss limit costs a break-even year.
Primary sources
The federal authorities behind the figures on this page. Realize is not a tax advisor, so these are the law itself rather than our summary of it.
- IRC §1256 The Section 1256 regime: the 60/40 long-term / short-term split and the year-end mark to market
- IRC §1211(b) The $3,000 annual cap on net capital losses against ordinary income ($1,500 married filing separately)
- IRC §1212(c) The elective three-year carryback of a net Section 1256 loss against prior-year Section 1256 gains
- IRC §1091 The wash-sale rule, which applies to stock and securities
- IRC §165(d) The wagering-loss limitation, capped at 90% of losses for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025
- IRS Form 6781 Where Section 1256 gains and losses are reported, and where the carryback election is made