Futures commission merchantKalshi-listed contracts

Coinbase prediction markets: who offers them, how they’re regulated, and what traders should know

As of October 25, 2026, Coinbase offers prediction markets through Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc., a futures commission merchant registered with the CFTC and the NFA. The contracts are listed on Kalshi’s exchange, which determines each result. Coinbase’s tax pages name no form for prediction markets, and Coinbase has not published which form, if any, CFM issues for them. The sections below cover who offers them, how a contract pays, the records Coinbase keeps and how a year can be reported.

By Owen Monagan, Founder & CEOUpdated October 25, 2026

Coinbase prediction markets at a glance

Checked October 25, 2026

Who offers it: Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc. (CFM)
Registration: A futures commission merchant registered with the CFTC and the NFA since August 16, 2023
Exchange: Kalshi, which operates the markets and determines each result
Where it is offered: U.S. residents only, excluding Nevada and Michigan
Funding: Settled USD and USDC
Fees: A fee breakdown on the order confirmation page; the help articles publish no schedule
Official record: The daily statement, which in-app history can briefly lag
Tax form for prediction markets: Not named: Coinbase’s tax pages do not mention prediction markets or event contracts

Who offers it

Coinbase is the intermediary; Kalshi is the exchange.

The contracts are Kalshi’s. Coinbase Financial Markets gives its customers access to them.

Coinbase’s prediction markets help page says the markets are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM) and operated by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange. In its December 2025 complaint against Michigan, CFM states that it has been registered with the CFTC and the National Futures Association as a futures commission merchant since August 16, 2023, and that its agreement with KalshiEX LLC would make Coinbase’s platform an access point to event contracts listed on Kalshi’s exchange. A Connecticut federal court records that Coinbase began offering Kalshi’s list of event contracts, sports included, in January 2026.

The help pages limit the product to U.S. residents, excluding Nevada and Michigan, and a disclosure at the foot of the same introduction page reads “Not available in Nevada” alone. Both states have a court order or court-entered agreement on record: Coinbase legal status follows each one, with the filing linked.

How a contract pays

A dollar for a correct outcome, nothing for the other.

Contracts are bought with settled dollars or USDC and resolved by Kalshi.

Contracts are bought with settled USD and USDC. Each one pays $1, minus fees, if the event occurs and $0 if it does not; Coinbase’s own example buys 10 Yes contracts at $0.40 for $4.00 and collects $10.00 if the event occurs. Kalshi determines the result from the source named in each market’s rules, and Coinbase honors that resolution and cannot override it.

The help articles publish no fee schedule: the order confirmation page shows a fee breakdown before an order is placed. The number of contracts a customer can hold is set per market from the financial information they certify. Settled cash moves from the Prediction Markets balance to the primary Coinbase account every two hours between 6:00 AM and 4:00 PM ET on business days.

Records

The daily statement is the record of a settled payout.

Coinbase shows a running P&L in the app and names the statement as the official record.

The predictions portfolio page shows realized and unrealized PnL, open contracts, and a line for each payout with its fill price, contracts held and profit. Coinbase’s payouts article calls the daily statement “the official record of all settled payouts”, listed under “The Following Event Contracts Settled Today”, and says in-app transaction history can briefly lag it during high-volume settlement periods.

Realize does not connect to Coinbase. A year’s statements and its net result are what the prediction market tax calculator works from.

Tax forms

Coinbase’s tax pages do not name prediction markets.

Four forms are listed for US customers, each described by the activity it covers.

Coinbase’s tax information page lists Forms 1099-DA, 1099-MISC, 1099-B and 1099-DIV, and none of its tax pages mentions prediction markets or event contracts. Coinbase tax forms quotes each page and sets out what Coinbase’s Form 1099-DA page describes: crypto sales, with no mention of a contract held at CFM.

Taxes

How a Coinbase prediction-market year can be reported.

Three routes are common. The taxes guide works each through one year.

There is no IRS guidance on how event contracts are taxed; of the people we’ve seen file, standard capital, Section 1256 and gambling are the most common routes. Coinbase prediction market taxes works each one through a Coinbase year, with fees, December 31 and where crypto tax rules stop, and how to file Coinbase prediction market taxes gives the steps.

More on Coinbase prediction markets.

Each guide answers one question about Coinbase’s prediction markets from Coinbase’s own documents, with the date we checked them.

State pages6 states

Coinbase in your state.

Each state where a court or regulator has acted on Coinbase’s event contracts has its own page: what the state has done, dated and sourced.

Guides4 guides

Read further.

How each common treatment works, for any prediction-market year.

Sources23 documents

Where each fact comes from.

Every figure above links to one of these, read on the date shown.

Also on Realize

Run your own numbers.

Calculators for a quick estimate, and the rest of the Tax Center.

Calculators

Estimate your year before you connect anything.

Prediction market tax calculator

The overviewPrediction market taxes. How a prediction-market year is taxed, from the first trade to the filed return. Read the overview Tax CenterEvery guide. Plain-English guides on how the tax works, gambling or not, legality and filing. See all guides

Price your Coinbase prediction market year three common ways.

Enter a Coinbase prediction-market net result for a federal range under each common route.

Calculate your taxes