Your estimate · 2026
net, all venuesThis year, a loss could be worth up to$12,580depending on how you file.
- Exact, from your real trades
- Free, read-only
For casual Kalshi and Polymarket traders
Prediction market taxes.Losses, put to work. Wins, optimized. Made compliant. Filed on time.
You get no form with your profit or loss, but you still report it. See what your year means in ten seconds.
Free estimate · 30 seconds1 of 3
See what your trading year is worth at tax time.
- No account
- Nothing to connect
The catch
Prediction markets don’t offer tax forms for your trades.
Kalshi and Polymarket don’t send a form with your profit or loss.
But you still have to report your trading on your taxes.
Losses may be worth money.
What a net loss could be worth depends on how you report it, and when the value comes back.
Net loss−$34,000
Tax bracket22%Capital
$660a year, 12 yrs
Gambling
$0vs winnings, if itemized
Ordinary income
$7,480all this year
Section 1256
$660a year, or 3 yrs back
Same loss, four ways. Tap a question to see what changes.
Federal only, single filer. A large loss is a lot to claim: a licensed CPA can document how you filed. Ordinary income forms are coming.
The bigger the profit, the bigger the gap.
Federal tax on the same profit under each way to file, from $1,000 to $1 million.
Federal tax on a profit
Tax as a share of profit
Tax owed at$100k
- Capital
- $23,090
- Gambling
- $25,490
- Ordinary income
- $23,090
- Section 1256
- $17,800
Capital and Ordinary income match on gains held under a year.
Single, $60,000 salary. Tap a question to see what changes.
Federal only, stacked on your salary. Gambling assumes you itemize and $2 won per $1 lost, or $6 per $5 if you trade often.
How it works
Decide how to file, compliantly.
There is no IRS guidance for prediction markets yet. Realize helps you choose how to file, then file it.
1. Connect your accounts
Every venue, by API key or file upload.
2. Decide your tax strategy
See all four ways to file, with or without a CPA.
3. File compliantly
Download forms, e-file, or have a licensed CPA sign.
Get started
Free to connect and estimate. Forms from $59.
Your year at tax time
Your year, in broad strokes.
Pick up or down and a rough amount. See how each common way to file treats it.
Your 2026 year · 4 ways, A to ZRead-only · Reviewed engine · Licensed CPAs
net, all venuesValue of the loss, four common ways to file
federal · 10% to 37%- File like stocksCapitalForm 8949$3,400 to $12,580$300 to $1,110/yr · 12 yrs$300 to $1,110 a year
Cancels gains, then $3,000 a year off your salary.
12 yrs
- File as gamblingGamblingSchedule 1$0past your winspast your wins
Only cancels wins from the same year.
- File as incomeOrdinary incomeForms coming$3,400 to $12,580all this yearall this year
Comes off your salary in full this year.
- File like futuresSection 1256Form 6781$3,400 to $12,580$300 to $1,110/yr · 12 yrs$300 to $1,110 a year
Like capital, and it can reach 3 years back.
12 yrs
Your bracket
Of the people we’ve seen file a loss near $34,000, these are the ways they handle it.
- YourselfFile it yourself
- E-fileE-file with our partner
- Licensed CPAsOur licensed CPAs
Illustrative federal figures from the estimate engine, single filer.
Assumptions
Your bracket
- Filing status
- Single
- Other gains this year
- None
- Loss against salary
- $3,000 a year
- Ordinary income
- Salary covers it
- State tax
- Not included
There is no IRS guidance for prediction markets, but all income must be reported. Realize explains the options so you can choose for yourself or with one of our licensed CPAs.
Forms from an engine a CPA firm reviewed
DFS Accounting Services, LLC, an independent CPA firm, reviewed the engine that builds every form.
- Four ways to file from one engine, ordinary income coming.
- Every line traces back to a trade you can open.
- Built to be read by you and your CPA.
Form 6781 · Part ISection 1256 contracts marked to market · Tax year 2026
Specimen1KalshiEX LLC, Account ****8421: each contractOn the statement
2Total of column (b), losses−$435,954.00
2Total of column (c), gains$764,046.00
3Net gain or loss$328,092.00
8Short-term, 40%$131,236.80
9Long-term, 60%$196,855.20
Built on the IRS template, with the transaction statement behind it: every trade, settlement and December 31 mark.
Specimen outputs for an illustrative $328,092 gain in tax year 2026. Realize builds forms and figures; it does not prepare, review or file your return.
Security and backing
Secure by design. Backed by fintech.
Read-only by construction
Security
We take security extremely seriously.
Pedigree
Institutional pedigree in fintech and compliance.
Read-only accessKeys can read, never trade
Fund · investedKeys encrypted at restEvery key, every venue
Fund · investedNo trading codeNone in our venue clients
Founder of
Invested
InvestedNo custody of fundsWe never hold your money
Founder of
Invested
InvestedYes. All income must be reported, whether or not the venue sends a form. There is no IRS guidance for prediction markets, so people file it several ways, and each changes the tax.
It can be. Reported as capital or under Section 1256, a net loss offsets gains, then up to $3,000 a year of other income. As ordinary income, the full loss. As gambling, only winnings.
You do, or you and your CPA. Realize shows your year each common way and builds the forms for each. It does not pick one.
You choose. File our forms yourself, e-file through our partner, where nothing is filed until you approve it, or have our licensed CPAs prepare your return.
You create a read-only key at Kalshi or Polymarket US. Our code implements no trading endpoint and holds no funds, so it can't place a trade or move money.
It is your call. A large loss is a lot of money to claim. A licensed CPA can give you tax advice, which Realize can’t, prepare and sign your return, and document the reasonable basis for how you filed in an explanation attached to it, which gives you cover if the IRS asks.
How our licensed CPAs workOnly prior Section 1256 gains count. Under §1212(c), a net Section 1256 loss can be carried back three years against the Section 1256 gains reported in those years. It can’t exceed those gains or create a net operating loss.
How to amend for a carrybackSection 1256 contracts are marked to market every December 31, so the wash-sale rule (§1091) does not apply to them in practice. On the standard capital route Realize does not compute wash-sale adjustments; that one is for your preparer.
Realize computes federal figures only. Not every state follows the Section 1256 60/40 split, so your CPA or tax software handles the state return from the federal figures.
A small team led by founder Owen Monagan. DFS Accounting Services, LLC, an independent CPA firm, reviewed the engine that builds the forms.
About RealizeThe estimate is free. Forms are $59 a year; forms with e-filing are $159. A CPA's price depends on your year, so book a call.
See your year before you file.
Your estimate is free. Forms open for the 2026 filing season.