GeminiTaxes

Gemini Predictions taxes: how event-contract gains, losses and Gemini Titan fees are taxed in 2026

As of November 3, 2026, Gemini Predictions gains are taxable whether or not a form arrives, and Gemini’s tax pages name no form for prediction contracts: its 1099-DA and 1099-MISC cover crypto. There is no IRS guidance on how event contracts are taxed. Below, one winning and one losing year under standard capital, Section 1256 and gambling treatment, side by side.

By Owen Monagan, Founder & CEOUpdated November 3, 2026Facts as of November 3, 2026Worked figures are illustrative

Gemini Predictions at tax time

Checked November 3, 2026

Exchange: Gemini Titan, LLC, a designated contract market registered with the CFTC
Tax form for prediction contracts: None named: Gemini’s US tax articles, last updated January 21, 2026, describe 2025 crypto activity only
Settled positions: Payout, cost basis and profit or loss per settled position, limited to the past year
Fees: Taker 0.07 and maker 0.0175, times contracts times P times (1 − P), rounded up to the next cent
Other fees: No settlement fee, no membership fee and no fee to cancel a maker order

What is Gemini Predictions, and is it taxed like Gemini crypto?

Flip between a winning and a losing year to see what each common route produces.

	Standard capital	Section 1256	Gambling
Forms	Form 8949 and Schedule D	Form 6781, then Schedule D	Schedule 1 for winnings, Schedule A for losses
How the gain is taxed	Short-term if held a year or less	60% long-term and 40% short-term	Ordinary income, losses kept apart
Federal tax on a $328,092 net gain	$78,742	$61,025	$89,205

Gemini Titan, not the Gemini crypto exchange

Gemini Predictions lists yes/no event contracts on Gemini Titan, LLC, which the CFTC designated a contract market on December 10, 2025. The CFTC registered Gemini Olympus, LLC as a clearing house on April 29, 2026; QC Clearing cleared the contracts before it, and a July 16, 2026 filing requested the transfer of open interest to Olympus. A contract pays $1.00 or $0. Gemini Predictions covers how the product works.

Why Gemini’s crypto 1099s do not describe the contracts

Gemini’s Form 1099-DA reports digital assets sold, converted or otherwise disposed of. Its first-in, first-out default applies to sales of digital assets. A Gemini Predictions contract is bought from the USD balance, and neither document names it.

Exchange: Gemini Titan, LLC, a designated contract market registered with the CFTC
Designated: A contract market by the CFTC on December 10, 2025
Clearing: Gemini Olympus, LLC, registered by the CFTC as a derivatives clearing organization on April 29, 2026
Account: Spot accounts trade predictions, from the USD balance
Form 1099-DA: For digital assets sold, converted or otherwise disposed of on Gemini, available February 15
Cost-basis default: First in, first out, applied to sales of digital assets

Year end

What does Gemini give you at tax time? No form, and one year of settled positions.

The year is rebuilt from Gemini’s own history.

No form for event contracts

None of Gemini’s US tax articles names prediction contracts; they were last updated January 21, 2026 and describe 2025 activity. Gemini’s articles say “Gemini does not prepare or issue Form 8949”, and they do not name Form 6781. The Predictions FAQ gives no tax guidance. The full list is on Gemini tax forms.

Settled positions: one year back

Gemini’s API returns each settled position with payout, cost basis and profit or loss. Gemini says “results are limited to the past year”.

Transaction History: the record for older activity

The settled-positions API returns the past year. For activity older than that, Gemini’s record is Transaction History, which downloads by date range on the web.

Tax form for prediction contracts: None named: Gemini’s US tax articles, last updated January 21, 2026, describe 2025 crypto activity only
Form 8949: Gemini does not prepare or issue it
Settled positions: Payout, cost basis and profit or loss per settled position, limited to the past year
Transaction history, web: Account > Settings > Statements and taxes > Transaction history > Exchange Transaction History, then a date range

How people file

How is Gemini Predictions taxed? The three common ways people file.

Of the people we’ve seen file, these are the most common ways they file. Each takes the same Gemini year to different forms.

	Standard capital	Section 1256	Gambling
Winning year: Forms	Form 8949 and Schedule D	Form 6781, then Schedule D	Schedule 1 for winnings, Schedule A for losses
Winning year: How the gain is taxed	Short-term if held a year or less	60% long-term and 40% short-term	Ordinary income, losses kept apart
Winning year: Federal tax on a $328,092 net gain	$78,742	$61,025	$89,205
Losing year: A $34,000 net loss this year	Up to $3,000 against other income	The same $3,000, or a carryback by election	Nothing, with no winnings to offset
Losing year: What the loss can be worth	An estimated $8,160 at the 24% bracket, $720 a year for 12 years	The same, or sooner against Section 1256 gains reported in the prior three years	$0

Illustrative worked year, not a Gemini account: single filer, $150,000 of taxable income before the result, federal income tax only, flat marginal rates at that income. The gain is held short-term. Gambling assumes $764,046 won and $435,954 lost, itemized. Figures from Realize’s tax engine. Illustrative worked year, not a Gemini account: single filer, $150,000 of taxable income before the result, federal income tax only, flat marginal rates at that income. The loss row assumes no other capital gains. Figures from Realize’s tax engine.

Gemini Predictions under Section 1256: Form 6781 and the 60/40 split

Under Section 1256, a contract open on December 31 is marked to market at year end, and the gain or loss is split 60/40.

For people who want to file under Section 1256 because of the 60/40 split, here is what that involves. Every gain or loss is split 60% long-term and 40% short-term, however briefly it was held. A contract still open at year end is treated as sold at its fair market value on the last business day (§1256(a)(1)). What they point to is §1256(g)(7)(B), which counts a board of trade designated as a contract market by the CFTC, and Gemini Titan’s designation.

What is cited against it: the list in §1256(b)(1) names no event contract, and §1256(b)(2)(B) excludes swaps and any “similar agreement”. Gemini’s tax articles name no year-end position statement. The lines go on Form 6781, Part I.

Standard capital: Form 8949, one row per Gemini position

Under standard capital, each cash out or resolution is a sale on Form 8949, short- or long-term by holding period. A net capital loss offsets other income up to $3,000 a year under §1211(b). What is cited against it is each of the other two readings: the contract-market designation that §1256(g)(7)(B) counts, under which the year-end mark and the 60/40 split apply in place of the holding period, and the wager reading below.

Gambling: Schedule 1, Schedule A and the 90% limit

Gambling treatment puts winnings on Schedule 1 and losses on Schedule A, only when itemizing and only up to winnings (§165(d)). From 2026, 90% of those losses count (Public Law 119-21, §70114). Gemini trades 24/7, so any grouping into sessions is a choice the filer makes. What is cited against reading Gemini trades as wagers: a position can be sold on the exchange before the event happens, at a price other traders set rather than odds a bookmaker sets.

Losses

Are Gemini Predictions losses deductible?

Under the two capital routes, yes, within limits. Under gambling, only against winnings.

The $3,000 limit on Gemini Predictions losses

A net capital loss offsets capital gains first. Then up to $3,000 a year comes off ordinary income, and the rest carries forward with no end date.

The Section 1256 carryback

A net Section 1256 loss can be carried back three years against earlier Section 1256 gains, by election. That can include a Kalshi or Polymarket year filed that way.

The gambling reading

As gambling, a loss counts only against winnings in the same year. A losing year with no winnings deducts nothing.

Fees

How do Gemini fees and payouts count?

Gemini charges on the trade, not on the payout.

Taker and maker fees

Gemini’s taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × P × (1 − P). The maker fee is 0.0175 × the same, charged only on a fill. Both round up to the next cent. The schedule applies to contracts listed on or after March 18, 2026.

The $1 or $0 settlement

There is no settlement fee. A payout is $1.00 a contract or nothing. The year below runs two illustrative trades through Gemini’s taker formula.

Trade	Cost	Fee	Payout	Result
100 Yes at $0.40, taker, event occurs	$40.00	$1.68	$100.00	$58.32
50 Yes at $0.70, taker, event does not occur	$35.00	$0.74	$0.00	−$35.74
The year				$22.58

Illustrative trades. Fee from Gemini’s taker formula, rounded up to the cent.

For people who count the fee in each position’s cost, on Form 8949 the first trade is a $58.32 gain and the second a $35.74 loss. On Form 6781 the year is one $22.58 net. As gambling, the $58.32 is a winning and the $35.74 a loss, kept apart. Liquidity and taker rewards are listed on Gemini’s fee page.

Fees: Taker 0.07 and maker 0.0175, times contracts times P times (1 − P), rounded up to the next cent
Fee schedule: For contracts listed on or after March 18, 2026; earlier contracts keep the previous schedule
Other fees: No settlement fee, no membership fee and no fee to cancel a maker order
Payout: $1.00 per contract if the event occurs, $0 if it does not
Rewards: Prediction trades do not qualify for any referral rewards or bonuses
Incentive programs: Liquidity and taker rewards, listed on Gemini’s fee page
Orders: Limit orders only, trading 24/7, with a sale (cash out) allowed until the event closes
Resolution: Closing ends trading; resolution sets the result, from a third-party data agency, and a delayed outcome waits under the Gemini Titan Rulebook
Collateral return: On No legs across mutually exclusive outcomes in pro football, college football and pro baseball games

Guides

Guides for a Gemini Predictions year.

The mechanisms behind each route, worked on prediction-market trades.

Prediction market capital gains and Form 8949One Form 8949 row per closed position, the $3,000 loss limit and the carryforward.
The Section 1256 60/40 ruleThe 60/40 split, the year-end mark and the three-year loss carryback.
Form 6781 for event contractsA filled Form 6781 Part I, lines 8 and 9, and the box D carryback.
The 90% gambling loss limitHow the 2026 limit on wagering losses works, with a worked year.

Sources17 documents

Where each fact comes from.

Every figure above links to one of these, read on the date shown.

Gemini Predictions

More on Gemini Predictions.

For the full picture, see our main Gemini Predictions page.

Price your Gemini Predictions year three common ways.

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