ExchangeCFTC designated
What is Gemini Predictions? Yes/no event contracts on Gemini Titan, a CFTC-designated exchange
As of November 3, 2026, Gemini Predictions is Gemini’s market for yes/no event contracts, listed on Gemini Titan, LLC, which the CFTC designated a contract market on December 10, 2025. A winning contract pays $1.00 and a losing one $0. Gemini’s tax pages name no form for prediction contracts. A Gemini connection that rebuilds your year from Gemini’s API is coming. Until it ships, upload your Gemini statements and our team builds the year.
By Owen Monagan, Founder & CEOUpdated
Gemini Predictions at a glance
Checked November 3, 2026- Clearing
- Gemini Olympus, LLC, registered by the CFTC as a derivatives clearing organization on April 29, 2026 Source
- Fees
- Taker 0.07 and maker 0.0175, times contracts times P times (1 − P), rounded up to the next cent Source
- Tax form for prediction contracts
- None named: Gemini’s US tax articles, last updated January 21, 2026, describe 2025 crypto activity only Source
Who runs it
Who runs Gemini Predictions? Gemini Titan, a CFTC-designated contract market.
Gemini Titan, LLC lists the contracts. A sister company clears them.
Gemini Predictions lists on Gemini Titan, LLC, which the CFTC designated a contract market on December 10, 2025. Gemini’s help center says the contracts are “approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).”
Gemini Olympus clearing (registered April 29, 2026) and QC Clearing
The CFTC registered Gemini Olympus, LLC as a derivatives clearing organization on April 29, 2026. Titan’s contracts cleared through QC Clearing LLC, which does business as Polymarket Clearing, before Olympus. A July 16, 2026 filing requested the transfer of open interest from QC Clearing to Olympus.
Same Gemini login, a separate exchange: spot accounts trade predictions
Gemini Predictions is available to US users only. Spot accounts trade predictions, paid for from the USD balance. A trader can also reach Gemini Titan through a third-party futures commission merchant, which may charge its own fees.
How it pays
How does a Gemini Predictions contract pay? $1.00 or $0, limit orders, cash out before close.
Each contract trades between $0 and $1 and settles at one end of that range.
A contract pays a fixed $1.00 if the event occurs and nothing if it does not. Every order is a limit order. Trading runs 24/7, and a position can be sold (“cash out”) until the event’s close time. A winning payout lands in the account on its own.
Closing, resolution and the Gemini Titan Rulebook
Gemini treats two moments apart. Closing ends trading. Resolution sets the result, from a third-party data agency. A delayed or disputed outcome waits under the Gemini Titan Rulebook, so a contract that closes in December can resolve in January.
GEMI- instruments and collateral return on football and baseball
Each instrument carries a GEMI- prefix, and YES and NO trade on one instrument. On pro football, college football and pro baseball games, Gemini can return collateral on No legs across mutually exclusive outcomes before the result.
Fees
What does Gemini Predictions charge? 0.07 taker, 0.0175 maker, times P × (1 − P).
The fee is largest at a 50-cent price and shrinks toward $0 and $1.
For contracts listed on or after March 18, 2026, Gemini’s taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × P × (1 − P). The maker fee is 0.0175 × the same, charged only when a maker order fills. Fees round up to the next cent. Older contracts keep Gemini’s previous schedule.
Gemini’s own example: a 100-contract taker buy at $0.40 costs $1.68 in fees. There is no settlement fee, no membership fee and no fee to cancel a maker order.
Records
What records does Gemini Predictions keep? Transaction History and one year of settled positions.
Gemini keeps the trades. How far back it keeps them matters at tax time.
Gemini shows predictions and payouts in Transaction History. Its developer API returns settled positions with payout, cost basis and profit or loss. Gemini says “results are limited to the past year”, so an earlier year comes from statements you saved.
Tax forms
Does Gemini send a tax form for predictions? Its tax pages name none.
Gemini lists three tax documents for US customers, all for crypto.
Gemini’s tax article lists Form 1099-DA, a Gain/Loss Statement and Form 1099-MISC, all for crypto activity. Those articles were last updated January 21, 2026 and describe 2025 activity. None names prediction contracts. The Predictions FAQ gives no tax guidance. Gemini tax forms sets out what each form covers.
Taxes
How can a Gemini Predictions year be reported?
Three routes are common. The taxes page works each through one year.
There is no IRS guidance on how event contracts are taxed. Of the people we’ve seen file, three ways are most common: standard capital on Form 8949, Section 1256 on Form 6781, and gambling on Schedule 1. For people who want to file under Section 1256 because of the 60/40 split, the provision most often cited is §1256(g)(7)(B), which covers a board of trade designated as a contract market by the CFTC; Gemini Titan holds that designation. The taxes guide also sets out what is cited against it. Gemini Predictions taxes sets the three side by side, and how prediction markets are taxed covers any venue.
Your state
Is Gemini Predictions available in your state?
Three states have acted.
The legal history includes three state actions. On April 21, 2026 the New York Attorney General filed a petition against Gemini Titan, LLC in New York County Supreme Court, asking the court to bar it from operating a gambling business in New York without a Gaming Commission license; we found no court order granting it. On September 10, 2026 Connecticut’s governor announced that the Department of Consumer Protection had ordered nine prediction markets, Gemini among them, to stop offering sports event contracts to residents. On October 2, 2026 the Ohio Casino Control Commission sent Gemini Titan, LLC a cease-and-desist letter demanding it stop offering sports event contracts in Ohio; a letter is not a court order. Gemini Predictions legal status follows each one, with the filing linked.
More on Gemini
More on Gemini Predictions.
Each page answers one question about Gemini Predictions from Gemini’s own documents, with the date we checked them.
- How Gemini Predictions is taxedTaxes Event contracts on Gemini Titan: the three common ways people file a winning and a losing year, losses, and Gemini’s fees.
- Gemini tax forms and Gemini PredictionsTax forms The three tax documents Gemini lists, what each covers, and the records a Gemini Predictions year is built from.
- Gemini Predictions legal status, state by stateLegal Every state where an order covers Gemini Predictions’s event contracts or a lawsuit is live, each one dated and linked to the filing.
- Prediction market taxesOverview How a prediction-market year is taxed, from the first trade to the filed return, with the three common treatments priced on one year.
State pages2 states
Gemini Predictions legal status in New York, Connecticut and Ohio
Each state with its own page shows what that state has done about Gemini Predictions, dated and sourced.
- Is Gemini Predictions legal in New York? We found no order stopping Gemini Predictions in New York, though the attorney general sued Gemini Titan in April 2026. A federal court ruling is pending.
- Is Gemini Predictions legal in Ohio? We found no court order or lawsuit stopping Gemini in Ohio, only an Oct 2, 2026 state regulator letter demanding it stop sports contracts.
Guides4 guides
Gemini Predictions taxes, forms and legal pages
How each common treatment works, for any prediction-market year.
- What Is the Section 1256 60/40 Rule? Section 1256 contracts get a blended 60% long-term / 40% short-term rate, mark-to-market and a loss carryback. Why it may matter to prediction-market traders.
- Prediction Market Capital Gains and Form 8949 Filing Kalshi and Polymarket trades as capital gains: one Form 8949 row per closed position, settlement as a sale, the $3,000 loss limit and the carryforward.
- How to Fill Out Form 6781 for Event Contracts A filled Form 6781 Part I for a Kalshi and Polymarket year: the 60/40 split on lines 8 and 9, the December 31 mark, and the box D loss carryback.
- OBBBA 90% Gambling-Loss Limit Under §165(d) From tax year 2026 the OBBBA caps the gambling-loss deduction at 90% of losses, so a year where winnings equal losses can leave 10% of the losses taxable. How §165(d) now works.
Sources10 documents
Where each fact comes from.
Every figure above links to one of these, read on the date shown.
- Gemini Titan, LLC Checked November 3, 2026
- CFTC: Gemini Titan, LLC order of designation (Dec 10, 2025) Checked October 29, 2026
- CFTC: Gemini Olympus, LLC DCO registration order (Apr 29, 2026) Checked November 3, 2026
- QC Clearing LLC: open interest transfer filing (Jul 16, 2026) Checked November 3, 2026
- Gemini Support: Gemini Predictions Checked November 3, 2026
- Gemini: Gemini Predictions Fee Schedule Checked November 3, 2026
- Gemini API: Prediction markets core concepts Checked November 3, 2026
- Gemini API: Collateral return Checked November 3, 2026
- Gemini API: Get settled positions Checked November 3, 2026
- Gemini Support: What Gemini provides for U.S. crypto tax reporting Checked November 3, 2026
Price your Gemini Predictions year three common ways.
A Gemini connection is coming. Until it ships, upload your Gemini statements and our team builds the year from them.