BrokerCFTC registered
What is Underdog Predict? Who runs it, how it’s regulated, and what traders should know
Underdog Predict is run by UDM, LLC, a futures commission merchant registered with the CFTC. UDM, LLC, which does business as Underdog Predict, says in its federal court filings that it is a futures commission merchant regulated by the NFA and the CFTC, and that it registered with both on January 9, 2026.
By Owen Monagan, Founder & CEOUpdated
Illustrative, federal only. See the assumptions.
CFTC says vs. what some states say
Underdog Predict is federally regulated. Some states argue its sports contracts are gambling that needs a state license.
- UDM, LLC, which does business as Underdog Predict, says in its federal court filings that it is a futures commission merchant regulated by the NFA and the CFTC, and that it registered with both on January 9, 2026. Source
- The CFTC designated Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. a contract market on September 5, 2025, and the CFTC's filings page lists its status as designated. Underdog says it acquired that company in March 2026. Source
- 4 states have an order, letter or lawsuit on record about Underdog Predict.
- Oct 9, 2026, Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (Tennessee): Cease-and-desist letter to Underdog, as Underdog's federal complaint describes it, demanding that it stop offering sports event contracts to customers in Tennessee. Source
- Sep 17, 2026, Missouri Attorney General (Missouri): Cease-and-desist letter to Underdog Sports Wagering, LLC asking it to stop offering sports wagering in Missouri or obtain a state license. Source
Who gets to regulate sports contracts on a federally registered exchange: only the federal regulator, or the states too? The Court is being asked whether federal commodities law preempts state gambling laws, not whether anyone must stop, and not how the trades are taxed. As of October 28, 2026. Underdog Predict legal status, state by state
One question, one page.
Each page answers one question from Underdog Predict’s own documents, dated and sourced.
How Underdog Predict works.
Who runs it, what it costs and what your account holds, from Underdog Predict’s documents and the CFTC.
Who runs it and how it’s regulated
UDM, LLC runs Underdog Predict, a futures commission merchant registered with the CFTC. Its event contracts are listed on Underdog Exchange (Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc.), Kalshi (KalshiEX LLC) and Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc.).
The CFTC designated Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. a contract market on September 5, 2025, and the CFTC's filings page lists its status as designated. Underdog says it acquired that company in March 2026.
Underdog Predict at a glance
Checked October 28, 2026- Operator
- UDM, LLC
- Exchanges
- Underdog Exchange (Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc.); Kalshi (KalshiEX LLC); Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc.)
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Everything else about Underdog Predict.
Narrower questions, each with its own page.
Questions about Underdog Predict.
UDM, LLC runs Underdog Predict.
UDM, LLC, which does business as Underdog Predict, says in its federal court filings that it is a futures commission merchant regulated by the NFA and the CFTC, and that it registered with both on January 9, 2026.
4 states have an order, letter or lawsuit on record involving Underdog Predict, as of our last check. Each one is dated and linked to the filing.
Underdog Predict legal statusTwo ways, both live: connect with an API key, or upload a Underdog Predict statement or export and AI sorts each trade into your year. Realize reads your history and never places a trade.
There is no IRS guidance for prediction markets, but all income must be reported. Realize explains the options so you can choose for yourself or with one of our licensed CPAs.
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Connect with an API key or upload a file for a free estimate under each way to file.