Prediction market tax software for Kalshi and Polymarket traders
Prediction market taxes.Losses, put to work. Wins, optimized. Made compliant. Filed on time.
Prediction markets don't send a tax form for your trades. Realize gives you the forms and support to file with confidence.
Which describes your year?
Win or lose, the tax works differently. Pick yours and we'll show you exactly what it means.
Three ways to file, side by side
Connect Kalshi or Polymarket and Realize builds the forms you need to file.
Built only for prediction markets
Kalshi and Polymarket US are the whole product, not a plugin to a generic tax tool.
We make the forms. You choose where they go.
Use them in your own tax software, have our filing partner e-file them, or work with our CPAs.
- Your own tax software
- Our filing partner e-files
- A CPA
From your trades to your forms.
We rebuild your year from your trades and produce forms where every figure traces back to a trade. File those forms yourself, through our partner software, or with our CPAs.
- 01Estimate
Get a free estimate.
Compare the main ways to file and their financial impact by answering optional questions.
- 02Connect
Connect Kalshi or Polymarket.
Create a read-only API key at Kalshi or Polymarket US and paste it in.
- 03Documents
Get your forms.
Get access to all available forms in our platform, which allow you to file your preferred way.
Forms from an engine independent CPAs have reviewed.
DFS Accounting Services, LLC, an independent CPA firm, reviewed how Realize builds every form.
- One engine, three routes: Form 6781, account summaries, Form 8949 and the gambling session log.
- Every line traces back to a trade you can open.
- Forms and summaries designed to be digestible for you and your CPA.
How are prediction market trades taxed? Three ways to report.
Trades on Kalshi and Polymarket US can be reported as standard capital gains, as Section 1256 contracts, or as gambling. On the same $328,092 gain, federal tax in our example ranges from $61,025 to $89,205 depending on the treatment.
Example year: single filer, $150,000 taxable income before the gain, $328,092 net gain held short-term.
Three common ways to report prediction market trades on a federal return, side by side.
| Compared on | Standard capital§1221 | Section 1256§1256 | Gambling§165(d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treats a contract as | An ordinary capital asset | A regulated futures contract or nonequity option | A wager |
| What's taxed | Net gain, at short- or long-term rates by holding period | Net gain, taxed 60% long-term and 40% short-term | Gross winnings, less 90% of losses if you itemize |
| Federal tax, example | $78,742 | $61,025 | $89,205 |
| Loss against other income | Up to $3,000 a year, after offsetting gains | Up to $3,000 a year, after offsetting gains | None. Losses only offset winnings. |
| Unused loss | Carries forward, with no end date | Can carry back 3 years against Section 1256 gains, then forward | Not usable later. No carryforward, no carryback. |
| Open positions at Dec 31 | Taxed when sold or settled | Valued at the Dec 31 close, as if sold | No December 31 mark |
| Wash-sale rule | May apply; unsettled for event contracts | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Forms we build | Form 8949 (figures for Schedule D) | Form 6781 (figures for Schedule D) | Session log, Schedule 1 winnings, Schedule A losses |
| Read more | Standard capital guide | Section 1256 guide | Gambling guide |
Example: single filer with $150,000 of taxable income before the gain, and a $328,092 net gain held short-term. Each figure applies the flat marginal rates at $150,000 to the whole gain, with no bracket stacking, and is federal income tax before the net investment income tax. Gambling assumes $764,046 won and $435,954 lost, itemized. $1,500 a year if married filing separately. Federal only. No IRS guidance or court ruling addresses whether event contracts are Section 1256 contracts. Separately, federal appeals courts disagree on whether states can regulate them as gambling. Illustrative, not tax advice.
One price for the whole year.
Billed once. Every route's documents, and whoever you want helping you use them.
Forms
Your documents for every route, for you or your accountant to file. We don't file or review them.
Get your tax formsForms + Filing
Your documents, e-filed through our filing partner, who is the preparer. Nothing is filed until you approve it.
Start filingForms + CPA
Your documents, plus our CPAs. They focus on prediction-market trading taxes and can help you with your year.
“I’ve never met a sports fan who realized that losing money on Kalshi can earn a tax refund.”
How Realize handles your account.
- Read-only
Our code only reads.
No trading endpoint and no funds held. It can't see your password, place a trade or move your money.
- Storage
Encrypted, US-hosted.
Your trade history is encrypted in storage and in transit, on US-based Google Cloud infrastructure.
- Use
Never sold, never for ads.
Your data computes your tax figures, nothing more. No ad networks, no resellers.
Frequently asked.
Short answers here. Longer ones, worked through in plain English, live in the Tax Center.
Visit the Tax CenterThere's no IRS guidance on event contracts yet, so we see three common treatments in use: standard capital gains, Section 1256 with its 60/40 split, and gambling winnings under §165(d). Realize prices all three side by side. Which one you file under is your decision, or your CPA's.
How a winning year is taxedNo. Realize builds your forms. If you want e-filing, it goes through our filing partner, who is the preparer, and nothing is filed until you approve it.
What each plan includesIt depends on the treatment and on whether you won or lost. On our example $328,092 gain, at flat marginal rates, federal tax is $61,025 under Section 1256, $78,742 under standard capital and $89,205 as gambling. A $34,000 loss is worth an estimated $8,160 under standard capital or Section 1256 at the 24% bracket, $720 a year, and nothing as gambling with no winnings to offset.
Compare the three on your own numbersOnly prior Section 1256 gains count. Under §1212(c), a net Section 1256 loss can be carried back three years against the Section 1256 gains you reported in those years. A carryback can't be larger than those gains and can't create a net operating loss in the earlier year.
How to amend for a carrybackA small team led by founder Owen Monagan. Nobody here is a CPA, enrolled agent or tax attorney. DFS Accounting Services, LLC reviewed the engine that builds the forms.
About RealizeSection 1256 contracts are marked to market every December 31, so the wash-sale rule (§1091) does not apply to them in practice. On the standard capital route Realize does not compute wash-sale adjustments; that one is for your preparer.
The Section 1256 60/40 ruleWe support Kalshi and Polymarket US, both CFTC-regulated exchanges. The offshore Polymarket (polymarket.com) and sportsbooks are not supported.
The Polymarket US tax calculatorRealize computes federal figures only. Not every state follows Section 1256's 60/40 split, so your CPA or tax software handles the state return from the federal figures.
The Prediction Market Tax CenterOur code only reads your account. Your trade history is encrypted, US-hosted, and never sold or used for ads.
Read the security pageRealize does not choose for you. It prices your year under all three treatments and builds the forms for each. Which one you file under is a decision for you and your CPA or preparer.
How prediction market trades are taxedLearn before you file.
Get your year priced three ways.
Your estimate is free. Forms open for the 2026 filing season.